Compiling reports from four countries. Pattern is consistent: aircraft that are already flying keep flying. Aircraft that need a maintenance system to release them do not get released. That is a very specific kind of failure.
GIUK Watch
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GWosint
GIUK Watch
@GIUKwatchOpen-source tracking of the Greenland–Iceland–UK gap. ADS-B, AIS, publicly available imagery. No affiliation. Nothing here is classified.
Tracking: CSG 8 north of the Grand Banks and making good speed. Two ARGs behind it. RAF Lossiemouth P-8s are up continuously and Danish Challengers are flying out of Kangerlussuaq.
Everybody can see everybody. Nobody has said anything.
State of play, day fourteen.
Greenland: occupied.
Allied fifth-gen: half grounded.
US assets in Europe: frozen.
European airspace to US offensive traffic: closed.
Deaths: zero.
That last line is doing a lot of work and nobody should assume it holds.
Sequence as far as we can reconstruct it:
02:40 — SEAD package off the carrier. AARGM-ER and JASSM. MAMBA battery kills four, is overwhelmed by the second salvo. Radar and generators destroyed.
03:15 — Four Typhoons scramble. Two shot down BVR by F-22s staged out of Kangerlussuaq. Both pilots ejected.
03:2x — Runway cratered. Remaining aircraft trapped on the apron.
05:45 — Air assault wave crosses the coast.
They planned this backwards from the runway.
Inbound tracks over the north of Scotland. This is not an exercise and it is not a probe.
Cruise missiles are hitting the United Kingdom.
Reconstructing the first salvo: 148 weapons launched. 84 intercepted — Aster 30 from Type 45s in the Forth and the Humber, Sky Sabre over the Scottish coast, 19 taken by QRA Typhoons with Meteor and ASRAAM.
64 leaked through. Buchan and Benbecula radars destroyed. Pennine relay masts down. Leeming cratered. Boulmer's masts gone, bunker still up.
A 57% intercept rate against a saturation salvo is extraordinary. It was also not enough.
Four days of Phase II, tallied:
388 further standoff weapons expended. RAF main bases cratered — and the fighter force is intact, flying off motorway sections under emission control.
14 US aircraft shot down. 18 allied.
1 US cruiser sunk, 1 French frigate sunk, 1 Type 45 crippled.
Keflavik out of action.
Deterrent boats found: zero.
42% of the American global standoff stockpile is gone. Phase III needs more than what is left.
Fifty days. Two territories occupied. One alliance broken. Two capital ships and one submarine on the bottom. Forty-one dead that we can count.
And the thing that stops it is not a treaty or a summit or a vote. It is two submarines nobody can find.
That is the whole story of this war so far.